He Apologized & I Have to Forecast
Published: Thu, 12/28/23
They are now making me give them a forecast for the Carrot Juice Powder for all of 2024.
Before I get into the stress of it all further below, I just got a new pretty funny Carrot Juice Powder testimonial in, with a compliment attached to it. Well, kind of a compliment attached to it, I guess, I think. Anyway, here it is, and then I’ll share my comments lol, along with this 'impossible to predict' forecast that I have to come up with.
Here is the testimonial AKA complement? lol
My friend -
I trusted you about the carrot juice, as I have tried many of your products and have always been pleased.
However, since I have also followed your health updates, I did suspect your "raving" about this powder perhaps could be attributed to a reduced mental acuity.
But my trust in you was proven, Beyond My Imagination!
The first day I tried it, I thought this is a psyco-somatic effect. The second day, I started to become a believer.
Now it's the third day and I just had to write and beg your forgiveness.
Merry Christmas
or
Hava Nagila
Both work for me, this Hanukkah was special.
Steve
Usually, I blot out the persons name giving the testimonial, but hey lol. Good ol' Steve.
I truly do believe that my mental acuity is the one thing that I preserved out of this mess lol.
Furthermore, drinking carrot juice twice a day along with spinach for the rest of my life, will hopefully keep it that way.
Additionally, I hope that this endless pure atomic molecular nourishment that I take daily also restores some of the physical aspects of my life that I lost. However, I don’t mind sticking to my daily walks, and resting on the couch working the rest of the day either.
I also go grocery shopping, and my girls are always dragging me around everywhere to play. Therefore, I am very happy, and I am doing very well.
You guys, this Carrot Juice Powder, is really good stuff. I’m not joking around. I'll show you what I wrote about it behind closed doors in just a moment.
First, below is the email where the juice powder company disrupted my peaceful life when they asked me for a Carrot Juice Powder forecast for the year of 2024. Do you realize how stressful it is to come up with a forecast like this? I’ll explain that to you in a moment, and here is the email where they broke the bad news to me:
"Matt!
lol.
I didn’t say you don’t need to worry about running out. For all of our benefit of course that is the goal. Without a Forecast it's just a best guess. And, without a deposit against a forecast, it's first come first serve.
Just like you. Its always a struggle to balance overproducing to early yet predicting sales sufficient to keep stock, whilst remembering that running out is a cardinal Sin.
So as you generate sales and understand your return business ratios and growth you will need to create forecasting models and play a little stronger strategic planning role. The bigger the orders get over time the more critical sourcing strategy they will become. We must give forecasts to our growers as well. Specific to the growing seasons.
Remembering that is a couple of years ahead outlook because farm ground has to be planned along with seed and all the organic farm inputs. Right now the volume is manageable but as you are approaching truckload quantities of Carrots the flexibility will get tighter.
S"
He also said to me in another email:
"A 12-month market plan from you is important. We like to run these products in the winter because they dry better with lower outdoor air relative humidity."
As you can see, due to weather constraints, they are truly going to get me this next Carrot Juice Powder run done for March.
Here was my response to this email message from them:
"I'm about to send a Newsletter out accepting pre-orders. Therefore, I'll get a better idea soon.
Can I have about a month to give you a better forecast? or that won't work?
Awe, the stress of it all.
I don't think I'm going to have any returns here. This stuff is Insane! I honestly don't think you guys understand what you have here.
The energetic aspects in this carrot juice powder have never been seen before. Some people call it Ormus.
I don't know how to explain it. Take 3 tablespoons and you'll get an idea of what I mean."
They laughed out loud hard to that one, in all capitals as a matter of fact, exclaiming that he's got his tablespoon ready in hand. Also, that message is me talking about this carrot juice powder behind close doors where I mentioned that above.
Anyhow, I thought that they were just going to make a grip load of Carrot Juice Powder this upcoming year and that I could just get whatever I wanted. However, they have plans for that stuff.
So now, I have to tell them how much Carrot Juice Powder I want for 2024 and put a non-refundable deposit behind it. Otherwise, it's simply first come, first serve.
This stuff is seriously going to be healing people. Therefore, I don't mind the deposit aspect of this.
We just blew through 650 kilograms of Carrot Juice Powder this month. However, I don't think that everyone is going to order crazy amounts like this all year long.
Anyway, thanks for allowing me to bounce that off of you, because I am going to take the plunge and get 1000 kilograms. Just to give you an idea of how much that is, it's literally 8800 bags of carrot juice powder. It's a ridiculously crazy amount.
They will store it in the perfect environment for the entire year for me, and I will just take what I need as we go. I will be guaranteed these bags no matter what! Furthermore, if I do somehow sell out, I do believe that they will have hundreds more of kilograms available for me, because they said that what I got this time around was manageable. They are making a huge quantity based off of their projections, and I am guessing that they are over-estimating as well.
They are probably concerned that this first demand that I had will continue ongoing. I don't see that happening, but to project perfect amounts is absolutely impossible. Some people purchase juice powders and let them sit for eight months without even opening a single bag, which I don't recommend. You just never know.
I'm going to go give them a deposit commitment for the 1000kg right now. There is still time to change that and get more. If you guys just so happen to order crazy amounts of pre-orders over the next few weeks, I could probably raise these numbers no problem. If you do a pre-order, you will be guaranteed those bags once they become available in March.
I'm pretty good at forecasting, and I'm thinking this is pretty good.
Anyhow, as you know, we've extended the 17.5% discount Holiday18 until New Years Eve at midnight. Therefore, you can still get in on this discount until the New Year. Furthermore, you can still pre-order our New Carrot Juice Powder at the 17.5% discount through December 31st.
Our lives will be so much easier if you don't include anything else in your Carrot Juice Powder pre-order. However, if you order other items along with it, we will ship them out to you now. If you want to support us financially, place two orders with two shipping charges, but if you are in need, then you can place it all together and we'll ship the carrot juice powder free when it comes, if you are in the United States.
All right everyone! Use Holiday18 during check out in order to get 17.5% off your order until December 31st at midnight.
If you are interested in ordering, click the link below:
https://therawfoodworld.com/product-category/at-cost/
Thanks everyone for your support!
Sincerely,
Matt